Diagram of El Niño and La Niña climatic phenomenon (Source: NOAA Climate.gov)
La Niña, the counterpart of the El Niño climate phenomenon, is characterized by a cooling of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and atmospheric pressure anomalies. This phenomenon significantly impacts global weather patterns, including in the Horn of Africa. In this region, where people heavily rely on agriculture and livestock for their livelihoods, the susceptibility to the effects of this climatic occurrence is heightened. During phases of La Niña, East Africa frequently experiences reduced rainfall, leading to severe droughts, which exacerbate ongoing food crises.
Previous drought episodes, driven by a combination of La Niña and other climatic influences, have triggered major humanitarian crises in the Horn of Africa. Between 2010 and 2011, an unprecedented drought impacted over 13 million individuals across Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, and South Sudan. This disaster led to widespread food insecurity, the destruction of crops, mass livestock deaths, and the death of approximately 260,000 people in Somalia, with half of those deceased being children under the age of five. More recently, from 2020 to 2023, a drought exacerbated by various climatic factors, including La Niña, led to severe food shortages affecting 23 million people. This crisis was worsened by a locust invasion and massive population displacement driven by the scarcity of water and food resources. According to the World Food Program, approximately 9.5 million livestock succumbed to the consequences of droughts during this period.
Transitioning from one crisis to another
As the region endeavors to restore stability following the crisis that occurred from 2020 to 2023, projections for late 2024 and early 2025 have already begun to raise apprehensions. La Niña was followed by El Niño, which began in mid-2023 and caused disastrous consequences as early as April 2024. The arid soils, compromised by previous droughts, were incapable of absorbing precipitation, thereby intensifying the flooding. This situation has been especially pronounced in South Sudan, where severe flooding has impacted approximately 735,000 individuals since May.
Floods in South Sudan
These extreme climate cycles, worsened by global climate change, undermine agricultural production capacities and deplete food reserves annually, significantly impacting health and economic prosperity. Furthermore, recurrent droughts hinder poverty reduction efforts and put pressure on humanitarian systems in the region. Projections for 2024 suggest that La Niña may lead to another drought, with a 70% likelihood of occurrence, thereby posing a renewed threat to food security in southern Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, and other neighboring countries.
Bar graph showing the increasing probability of La Niña in the coming months (Source: NOAA Climate.gov)
Should this prediction come to fruition, the main agricultural season from October to December— vital for the harvests in February and March — may experience significant disruption. This could lead to millions being subjected to elevated levels of acute food insecurity and malnutrition, as indicated by the Food Security and Nutrition Working Group. Rural populations, particularly pastoral and agro-pastoral communities, are likely to bear the brunt of these effects, further exacerbating population displacements and imposing additional burdens on already strained humanitarian systems.
Collaborative efforts to address climate risks
The extreme cycles associated with La Niña exacerbate economic vulnerability in the Horn of Africa, complicating food accessibility, increasing prices, and intensifying conflicts over natural resources. La Niña continues to pose a significant threat to climate stability and food security in East Africa. The ability to anticipate and mitigate these impacts is essential to minimizing human and economic losses, requiring the implementation of adaptation measures. Advances in scientific understanding of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)1 phenomena have already enhanced forecasting capabilities, affording governments and non-governmental organizations a preparation window ranging from one to nine months. Drawing lessons from past droughts is imperative, as insufficient preparedness and delayed action have resulted in severe repercussions. With potential droughts anticipated in late 2024 and early 2025, proactive planning is essential to mitigate the impacts.
Vétérinaires sans Frontières Suisse (VSF-Suisse), active in East and West Africa, adopts an agroecological approach focused on livestock to strengthen community resilience in the face of disasters. By promoting livestock health and productivity, we contribute to sustainable improvements in living conditions and resource management. This strategy not only increases food security but also equips communities to better endure climate-related shocks.
- A recurring climatic phenomenon linked to temperature variations in the waters of the equatorial Pacific, associated with changes in the atmosphere, which influences global weather patterns. There are three phases: El Niño, La Niña and neutral. (Source: World Meteorological Organization) ↩︎
Communications and fundraising intern